Grenada VMT Estimation

This project builds an R function to simulate future Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in Grenada using Monte Carlo methods, producing 20 simulations for each target year (2020 and 2040). The model incorporates population growth from 2015–2040 starting from a current population of 106,823, under two speculative annual growth-rate assumptions (1.003 and 1.005). To reflect alternative spatial futures, it compares a compact/urban-growth scenario (growth concentrated around St. George and Grenville) against an unrestricted development scenario with no growth constraints. Car ownership is estimated as 1 car per 2 people (rounded up), and trip distance is proxied by the minimum distance to the two urban centroids (nearest of St. George or Grenville). Across the two growth-rate assumptions, mean VMT in 2020 is approximately 105.6–107.1M (urban growth) versus 561.2–563.4M (unrestricted), and in 2040 approximately 116.0–126.4M (urban growth) versus 575.8–590.3M (unrestricted). Overall, the simulations indicate that compact development can substantially reduce aggregate travel demand relative to unconstrained growth, even under similar population growth trajectories.